The Three Cuts
Each CEC release in the sequence increased the precinct count by roughly 50-220 precincts and decreased the Civil Contract share by roughly 0.3-1.0 points. 131 precincts -> 185 precincts is +54 precincts, -0.96 points. 185 -> 404 is +219 precincts, -0.28 points. The rate of share-decline-per-additional-precinct varied because the geographic composition of the added precincts varied: the 131-to-185 jump was concentrated in rural marzes (which favoured Civil Contract less than the very-first-reporting marzes), and the 185-to-404 jump began incorporating Yerevan administrative-district precincts (which favoured Civil Contract more weakly than the marz average but more strongly than the within-Yerevan slope).
The pattern continues with the named precinct data we have separately: Yerevan Avan averages roughly CC 50%, Yerevan Ajapnyak averages roughly CC 60%, Yerevan Davtashen district full aggregate places CC at roughly 42 percent. Yerevan is decisively less Civil-Contract-skewed than the marz average. The 1,500-precinct portion of the count not yet aggregated includes the bulk of the urban Yerevan vote.
Where the Curve Could Land
If the 56.04 -> 54.8 curve continues linearly to the 1,029 mark and beyond, Civil Contract's final share would land in the 51-53 percent range. This would still be a comfortable majority. But it would be a meaningfully different election than the 56-percent framing Pashinyan presented at 22:54 UTC, particularly for the question of whether the next government can form 'single-handedly' (as Pashinyan claimed in his press conference) or whether coalition arithmetic comes into play. Single-party majorities of 52% are politically distinct from single-party majorities of 56%.
The downward slope also matters for the four-percent and eight-percent parliamentary thresholds. At 185 precincts, Bargavach Hayastan was at 4.87% -- below the 5% party threshold. At 404 precincts, it was at 5.38% -- above. Bargavach's trajectory depends entirely on which marz / Yerevan distribution dominates the unreleased portion. The same volatility applies to Unity Wings (at 2.2% as of the 404 cut, with the small-Yerevan-party signal in Davtashen showing larger shares for Unity Wings than for Bargavach Hayastan). OWL will document the trajectory as new aggregates land.
Sources: Azatutyun.am (CEC aggregate progression) · OWL live blog